Heavy Rains In Gujarat Till July 27

JULY 24, 2017, MONDAY

The low pressure area presently over south Rajasthan will still cause very heavy rainfall in north and northeast Gujarat in the next 48 hours. The districts affected will be Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Mahesana, Patan, Aravalli, Ahmedabad, Dahod, Mahisagar, Kheda, Anand.

The rains will begin to move to Kutch by Wednesday afternoon and may continue into Thursday, July 27. The system is expected to weaken and dissipate over northern Kutch-Sindh border regions by Friday.

Other possibilities are it moves north into Rajasthan (GFS) OR it moves into the Arabian Sea via Saurashtra on Thursday. (German model). This possibility says the system will retain its strength and will move towards northern Oman.

Only the German model predicts that the system will intensify into a deep depression as it enters the Arabian Sea off Kutch-Karachi coast.

The Indian Meteorological Department seems to think the system will move north into Rajasthan. In the latest morning bulletin today it predicts decreasing rains in Gujarat from Tuesday evening and heavy rains in Rajasthan.

As to the other low pressure system over India, in West Bengal..... It will move through Bihar, Jharkhand, northern Chattisgarh onto Madhya Pradesh in the coming days. It is at present expected to dissipate over northwest Madhya Pradesh by July 28.

West Bengal, Jharkhand, parts of Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh will receive the most precipitation from this system.


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Low Pressure To Affect Gujarat Till July 29?

JULY 23, 2017, SUNDAY

There is a strong possibility that the current low pressure system over southeast Rajasthan is not going to dissipate in the next 2-3 days as widely expected but will briefly intensify and move over Kutch region of Gujarat again by Wednesday.

The Indian Meteorological Department believes presently that the system will affect north Gujarat for another 2-3 days and then the rainfall in decreasing amounts will shift to Rajasthan.

There is another possibility. The low pressure area instead of moving northeasterly and dissipating over northeast Rajasthan, INTENSIFIES BRIEFLY AND COMES BACK TO GUJARAT, OVER KUTCH BY WEDNESDAY. Then it dissipates by Thursday/Friday when over Kutch.

If that happens then what?

Heavy rains continue in northeast Gujarat till Wednesday and then come back to crisis spots Banaskantha, Kutch, Morbi, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Surendranagar  districts. Heavy rains expected in these areas on Wednesday, July 26 and Thursday, July 29.

Ahmedabad may receive almost 4 inches of rain daily Sunday to Tuesday, possibly Wednesday. Worst affected will be Ahmedabad, Patan, Banaskantha, possibly northern parts of Surendranagar district.

Sindh will not benefit much even if this possibility does become reality.

Meanwhile the Indian Meteorological Department has issued the highest red alert rainfall warning for entire Gujarat state on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday.


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Low Pressure System Forming Over West Bengal

JULY 23, 2017, SUNDAY 

The Bay of Bengal is in ferment. A low pressure area will crystallise over West Bengal by Sunday evening. That is today evening.

Very heavy rainfall will occur in Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha in the next 36 hours. The system will move through Jharkhand, northern chatt, northern Madhya Pradesh onto northern Rajasthan and dissipate by Thursday-Friday.

Most of heavy precipitation will occur in West Bengal, Jharkhand, northern Madhya Pradesh by Thursday.




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Flooding Rains Expected In North Gujarat Till Monday Eve

UPDATE, JULY 22, 2:00 PM IST 

FORECAST FLASH.......

The low pressure system over Madhya Pradesh has begun to towards north Gujarat. It will reach by Saturday late night and will intensify. It will remain over north Gujarat-south Rajasthan border till Tuesday.

As the system is intensifying, THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VERY VIGOROUS OVER GUJARAT IN NEXT 48-72.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN ISOLATED AREAS OF THE STATE. HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINS IN OTHER AREAS.

THE SITUATION WILL REMAIN GRAVE TILL MONDAY.........SEVERE FLOODING IS A REAL POSSIBILITY......

In next 24 hours, till Sunday evening, 10 inches of rainfall expected in Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar city, 12 inches in Himmatnagar, 8 inches in Palanpur.

Heaviest rain expected in Sabarkantha, Mahesana, Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad, Kheda, Surendranagar districts.

JULY 22, 2017, SATURDAY 

Even as the low pressure area moves over north Gujarat-South Rajasthan, very heavy rainfall is expected in parts of the state in the next 72 hours.

Though all the regions of the state will receive rains in lesser or more amounts, the deluge is expected in north Gujarat and parts of Saurashtra till July 24 evening.

The following districts will receive more than 10 inches of rainfall.....

SABARKANTHA, BANASKANTHA, PATAN, MAHESANA, ARAVALLI, GANDHINAGAR, AHMEDABAD, ANAND, PARTS OF SURENDRANAGAR.

The cyclonic circulation will move over to Rajasthan on Monday but it's southwest quadrant having all the rain clouds, so rainfall will continue in Gujarat till July 27 intermittently.

In Rajasthan, the southern parts will receive very heavy rains in the coming 96 hours. Rains will also spill over to parts of Sindh province of Pakistan by Monday. Dabhri, Thatta, Mirpurkhas, Hyderabad may receive heavy showers in the coming days.


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Gujarat In For A Wet Spell Till July 25: FLOODING AWAITS BANASKANTHA, PATAN.

JULY 21, 2017, FRIDAY 

The low pressure system from the Bay of Bengal is hovering over western Madhya Pradesh presently. In the coming  1-2 days it is expected to move over southern Rajasthan-North Gujarat region. On Monday it will wander north over to Rajasthan and dissipate by Wednesday.

Affecting the weather in Gujarat is another low pressure system presently hovering over Gujarat. But it is expected to dissolve in a day or two.

Under these influences intermittent showers are likely in Gujarat in the next 2-3 days. Some regions of the state will receive heavy to very heavy rainfall.

The rains will move to Rajasthan from Sunday. It will continue till Wednesday. But barring areas adjoining Gujarat the rains will not be very heavy.

Meanwhile another low pressure system will form over Bangladesh/West Bengal on Monday, July 24. Its track is at present not clear.

EXPECTED RAINFALL TILL TUESDAY MORNING 

More than 6 inches. Some regions may receive upto 20-25 inches: BANASKANTHA, SABARKANTHA, PATAN, MAHESANA, VADODARA, VALSAD, PARTS OF CENTRAL, SOUTH GUJARAT, PARTS OF AMRELI, JUNAGADH, KUTCH DISTRICTS.

Upto 6 inches: RAJKOT, JUNAGADH, AHMEDABAD, SURENDRANAGAR, MORBI, PARTS OF CENTRAL, SOUTH GUJARAT.

Banaskantha, Mahesana, Patan, Sabarkantha, Aravalli districts are in for a deluge. THEY WILL RECEIVE CONTINUOUS RAINS ON SATURDAY, SUNDAY, MONDAY. TOTAL OF MORE THAN 30 INCHES IN 3 DAYS. ESPECIALLY BANASKANTHA, PATAN DISTRICTS.

There is a good chance of very heavy rains in Morbi. Parts of Kutch and Surendranagar districts receiving 8-15 inches of rain by Monday morning.


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