Rains Coming To Northern Oman?

JUNE 24, 2017, SATURDAY 

There is a good chance of rains arriving in northern Oman on June 30, 2017. The reason? A cyclonic circulation that is expected to form off the Saurashtra coast in India in the next 48-72 hours. Though there is also the possibility of the system forming around June 30, not June 27-28.

The track of the expected rainmaker system remains unclear at present. The European model ECMWF predicts it will move onto Sindh in southern Pakistan by June 30 bringing flooding rains to coastal areas of the country.

Other equally reliable models foretell that it will weaken a little and drift west towards northern Oman. If this happens expect showers to start in the arid country from June 30. There might be showers in Muscat too if the system sustains itself.


American agency Climate Prediction Center's rainfall forecast June 24-30.

It expects monsoon to cover most of India by July 7. Interestingly it also predicts very heavy rainfall in dry Kutch region in Gujarat and parts of Rajasthan in early July.



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3 Circulations That Will Galvanise Monsoon Into Action

JUNE 23, 2017, FRIDAY

In the coming days three upper air cyclonic circulations, two in the Bay of Bengal, one in the Arabian Sea, are going to kickstart monsoon in the country, which is running 10 days behind schedule.

One of them has already formed. An upper air cyclonic circulation in northern Bay of Bengal. In the next 2-3 days it is going cross the coast into Andhra Pradesh, then move through northern Rayalseema, southern Telangana, onto Maharashtra and by June 27 end up in western Madhya Pradesh.

The second may form off the Saurashtra coast around June 27. It will curve around the coast move into Kutch and then onto southern Rajasthan by month end. This will bring heavy rains to Saurashtra, Kutch, parts of Gujarat region, southern Rajasthan and parts of Sindh in Pakistan.

Though some forecast models say it might drift to northern Oman.

The third is expected to form on June 30-July 1 off the Andhra Pradesh coast. Where it will go remains to be seen.


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Rainfall In Punjab, Delhi, Jharkhand, Kolkata, Odisha Today

JUNE 21, 2017, WEDNESDAY 

Rainfall hotspots today......

It is raining now in Punjab, Haryana, northern Rajasthan. This will continue till today afternoon and spread to capital Delhi by noon.

The other rain hotspots today are Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha. The rains will start in earnest by 3 PM today in the states and continue till evening.


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Bay of Bengal Low To Push Monsoon Into Central India

JUNE 20, 2017, TUESDAY 

Monsoon is going to intensify in the coming days. A low pressure system is expected to form in the Bay of Bengal by June 25-26.

Now this rainmaker is going to make landfall into Odisha by June 26. It will then move diagonally into Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and end up in eastern Rajasthan by June 28-29. The moribund monsoon will be jerked, shocked into awakening.

Meanwhile the other Rip Van Winkle, Arabian Sea will slowly shed it's lethargy. The increased rainfall activity in coastal Karnataka will move upto Goa then Konkan at the same time. The sea will start pushing moisture into Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan.

The joint operation by the two monsoon streams will lead to a rapid advance into India. The optimistic American GFS model predicts monsoon will cover the entire country by July 5.

The European model ECMWF expects a low/cyclonic circulation to form off the Saurashtra coast by June 26. But this is yet to be confirmed. This model predicts a flare-up in monsoon activity on June 27 off Goa coast which will then moves to the Saurashtra coast in the following 2-3 days.


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Rainfall Forecast Till June 22 And Other Forecast Maps


JUNE 19, 2017, MONDAY

The map above shows the total rainfall expected in the next 3 days. We see rainfall activity increasing on the west coast of India. It starts from Kerala-Karnataka coast and spreads up to Konkan by Thursday. Good rains in Andhra, Rayalseema, West Bengal as monsoon settles in these region. Further progress into Bihar, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand. Pre-monsoon showers in Uttar Pradesh and Delhi.

According to the American GFS forecast model by July 4, monsoon will almost cover the entire country. The period June 26-July 4 is going to see hectic activity on the part of monsoon. By then it will reach rain-starved Gujarat and western Rajasthan too. As well as the capital Delhi.




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