The next deluge spot in India after Gujarat is Uttar Pradesh. The reason being the Bay of Bengal low will collide with the remnants of the Arabian Sea low in the next 3 days. The result will be flooding.
The Bay of Bengal low is now in Banglasdesh. In the next two days it will move through West Bengal onto Bihar. The Arabian Sea rain system, which flooded Saurashtra is presently in northern Madhya Pradesh. In the next two days it will move towards eastern Uttar Pradesh. On June 27, June 2015, the two system will collide over the Uttar Pradesh-Bihar border.
The result will be heavy rains in the region.
So by the 27th of June we can envisage good rainfall activity in the following areas. Northern Madhya pradesh and Uttar Pradesh due to the Arabian Sea system. Bangladesh, West Bengal, Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh owing to the Bay of Bengal low pressure system.
The next big activity in monsoon 2015 will be a low pressure area forming in the Bay of Bengal around July 5, 2015. This is expected to move through Andhra, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. But this will be a weak system.
The reason? The expected massive typhoon that will form in early July, 2015 in the Western pacific and which will hit Hongkong, Macau and northern Vietnam.
There is a deep relationship between the storm activity in the north Indian Ocean and West Pacific. Especially with the strong prevailing El Nino the storm activity is rationed between the two oceans. One gets active then the other gets passive.
Since two typhoons are expected in early July in the Western Pacific, one can assume that there is going to be big lull in the Indian monsoons in the first half of July 2015.
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| The Bay of Bengal low is presently about to enter Bangladesh. |
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