XWF WEATHER Long Range Forecast: Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclone In June 2017

APRIL 14, 2017

The US Climate Prediction Center has hinted strongly at the possibility of a tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea in early June this year. 

The CPC's CFS (Coupled Forecast System) model has been consistently showing a tropical depression/cyclone forming in the Arabian Sea in June. Recent data indicate a tropical cyclone taking shape off the Kerala coast around June 6-7, which intensifies and goes on to make landfall into Oman on June 14, 2017.

Please keep in mind that the CFS is a climate forecast model, unlike the GFS and ECMWF. So the accuracy about the track and date of the expected storm is bound to be comparatively less. But this model, as we have observed now and again, has been good at giving out possibilies of tropical storm formation.

We can say this with some certainty that a tropical storm is imminent in the Arabian Sea this June. When it forms is to be seen. Where it goes, Gujarat, Sindh or Oman, is uncertain at this stage.

There is an equally good possibility that a tropical cyclone may form the in the Bay of Bengal around June 25, 2017. The onset of monsoon over India is going to be early and strong according to the American climate forecast agency.

Renowned Indian meteorologist PV Joseph, a former director of Indian Meteorological Department, too says the monsoon will hit India earlier in 2017 around May 24.

Studying the data from the CFS model in the last few days, one sees the South West monsoon becoming very active  since the start of June, 2017, in the Arabian Sea. A couple of rain bearing systems will push monsoons onto the Indian west coast, including Gujarat and Sindh by June 10. So the start of the monsoon this year is going to be timely and vigorous.

Arabian Sea tropical cyclone June 2017 CFS forecast

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