Even as the Bay of Bengal prepares to hurl a tropical cyclone MORA at Bangladesh in the next 4-5 days, it is becoming evident that the Arabian Sea too is readying to give birth to a low pressure system/depression in the coming days in early June.
Even as the Bay of Bengal system gathers steam, it will drain off energy from the Arabian Sea. So the Arabian Sea is going to lay low in first gear till May 30. Once the Bay of Bengal storm hits Bangladesh and dissipates, the Arabian Sea branch of monsoon will accelerate.
On May 30-31 the monsoon will hit Kerala. After that it will quickly move into coastal Karnataka. Then on June 3 near the coast of Goa things will happen.
A low pressure area will develop accompanied by heavy rains. Monsoon will move into Goa.
Very heavy rains are expected in Konkan and Goa after the low forms. It will push monsoon into Mumbai.
Whether this fledgling storm system will develop into something bigger is uncertain at this moment. Where it will go is equally unclear presently.
The GFS model expects the low pressure system to form on June 5. It says it may develop into a possible depression and head towards Balochistan/Oman.
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