After May 20, the buildup of the monsoon has begun. In the Arabian Sea the coast off Somalia has become increasingly stormy with many clusters of thunderstorms. This activity will over the next few days shift eastward towards the Maldives, nearer to the Indian coast.
On the Bay of Bengal side the seas west of the Andaman Nicobar islands is becoming increasingly stormy. A low pressure area may develop here in the next 24 hours.
All this is just a curtain-raiser to the main event. The monsoon assault on the Indian mainland.
The arrival of the rainy season this year will occur on two fronts.
First the Bay of Bengal will spawn a big rainmaker low pressure system in northeastern part of the sea on May 29.
Secondly, the Arabian Sea will go into a massive ferment off the Kerala-Karnataka coast from May 29-30. That will result in the monsoon hitting Kerala. Not only that. That area may spawn a low pressure system. Some forecast models are already predicting that a massive tropical cyclone will emerge from that.
More on that later. Because the storm situation in the Northern Indian Ocean has not yet become any clearer. We have to wait.
Personally we think the chances of a tropical storm either in the Bay of Bengal or Arabian Sea is decreasing as the Madden Julian Oscillation is moving away from the Indian Ocean. We may at most get a low pressure/depression in the Bay of Bengal. That too is not certain.
No comments:
Post a Comment