This is a weather system that authorities the world over fear and hate. The powerful well marked low pressure area with its phenomenal amounts of rainfall it brings with it.
One such system is presently hovering over western Madhya Pradesh. And it is preparing to assault Gujarat from midnight or early hours of Friday, July 14.
It will enter from Dahod-Godhra region of central Gujarat. By Friday morning, Vadodara and Anand will be hit by a deluge lasting for hours. By noon Ahmedabad, by night Surendranagar. Rajkot, Morbi will wake up on Saturday morning to see the monster is on it. By Saturday evening, it will be knocking on the doors of Kutch districts.
Some forecast models predict that the low pressure system will mover over Kutch very slowly. For 24 hours. Till Sunday late night. Hence heaviest of the rains will fall in that district. Bhuj, Gandhidham, Mandvi, Naliya, Nakhatrana. All can expect more than 10 inches of rain till July 17 morning.
Our estimate is the areas that will receive the heaviest rainfall are, Central Gujarat ( Vadodara, Anand), North Gujarat (All districts, Ahmedabad included). Rajkot, Surendranagar, Morbi districts of Saurashtra and of course Kutch district.
The European model includes Jamnagar, Junagadh, Porbandar, Dwarka, Somnath districts in the heavy rainfall list.
All these areas will receive at least 10 inches of rainfall till Monday, July 17, 2017.
Estimates by different forecast models differ radically for rainfall expected in major cities of Gujarat in the period July 14-16.
RAJKOT: 4-19 inches
AHMEDABAD: 2-12 inches.
VADODARA: 4-18 inches.
BHUJ: 3-12 inches.
JUNAGADH: 3-12 inches.
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