FORECAST FLASH......
Most models including the European model say the cyclonic circulation over Madhya Pradesh will not intensify much but pass through north Gujarat, Kutch and weaken, maybe dissipate after that by Monday.
Only the GFS model ( as does the Indian Meteorological Department) predicts that it will strengthen into a powerful depression tomorrow when over north Gujarat. And that it will remain a depression even on Sunday. It will abruptly weaken on Monday on entering Sindh.
IF THE EUROPEAN MODEL+ ARE RIGHT...
It means heavy rains mostly in Banaskantha, Patan, Kutch districts in the next 72 hours. Moderate rains, not heavy, in Ahmedabad, Rajkot and in other parts of Saurashtra.
IF THE GFS IS RIGHT.....
It will mean very heavy rains in Saurashtra, north Gujarat, parts of Kutch, Ahmedabad, Rajkot. In short the forecast we have made till now.....
The next 72 hours will tell who is proved right.
Latest GFS data issued at 0600 hours UTC July 14, still confirms that the low pressure system due in Gujarat on Saturday will intensify into a powerful depression on Saturday, Sunday. That means many areas in Kutch, Saurashtra, north Gujarat are in for very heavy rains till Monday. SEE FORECAST MAP BELOW.....The figures in the map are in mm of rainfall.
Latest GFS forecast predicts heaviest rains in Saurashtra till Monday night. Districts of Rajkot, Jamnagar, Surendranagar, Morbi, Porbandar, Kutch.
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